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The annual Italy Real Estate Outlook 2020 report offers a macro perspective on real estate, in particular related to the past year and new trends we expect, with a focus on every asset class of the market.


Economic Outlook


Protectionist trade policies continued to hamper growth in 2019 and, despite positive recent developments, these remain the major source of uncertainty when determining whether an international economic recovery is on the books for 2020. In Europe, monetary policy will continue to sustain growth in 2020, with general credit conditions also favourable. The fiscal boost for demand in leading countries is likely to be significant and the effects of negative shocks to manufacturing sectors will tend to die away. Italy should see modest improvements in growth, provided there are no new political or bond market stress.



Investment Outlook



2019 marks a step change from 2018. The growth in volumes reflects the significant potential of the Italian real estate market in a context of increasing liquidity on global markets. In the most dynamic sectors, the intensification of activities in the development pipeline will be the main driver of growth and help international players to become more established in the Italian market through the creation of new product.




Office Outlook



In 2020, the forecast for Rome and Milan is a compression in yields and growth in prime rents, while the business services and flexible space sectors will consolidate their already substantial market shares. Milan will see some major projects completed, while in Rome the conditions will mature for an increase in the redevelopment activity.



Retail Outlook 

 


The drop in investment experienced in both Italy and other European countries in the retail market has its roots in international investors favouring a more cautious approach. The drop in competition in this industry has opened the way for key opportunities tied to specific local features. Interest in the high street segment in primary markets remains high.



Logistics Outlook




The arrival of new international players into the Italian market and the intensification in the development pipeline will open the way to a new investment cycle for logistics in Italy. The expansion of secondary markets provides one of the biggest opportunities for investors and developers.



Residential Outlook




The global success of multifamily real estate has finally reached the Italian market. Major urban developments in metropolitan cities are currently set-up to face the needs of a growing population looking for an ever shrinking rental market.


Hotels Outlook



2019 was a record year for investment in hotels in Italy. At around €3.3 billion in transaction volumes, the amount was more than double the previous year, making this the second largest real estate investment sector in Italy, after offices. 2020 also looks very promising, although repeating the exceptional results in 2019 will not be a easy. The remarkable volumes in 2019 was partly on the back of the sale of some hotel
portfolios at record values, which is rather unusual for the Italian hotel market.

NPLs Outlook 

 



2019 confirmed THE ongoing trends and international standing of the Italian NPLs market: yearly transaction volume is once again above the last five-year average, with the increasing contribution of the Secured UTPs sector.



Sustainability Outlook

 


World’s institutions are implementing processes to speed-up sustainable practices across the spectrum of all human activities. In this context the competitive advantage
offered to investors by sustainable buildings will become increasingly attractive until such assets will become the norm in the near future.

 

    Published on February 4th 2020.